Ｒeal－time Prediction of Hydrological Model Based on Time－varying Gains

China Rural Water and Hydropower ›› 2019 ›› (6) : 16-22.

LIU Hui-yuan1，XIA Jun1，2，ZOU Lei2，HONG Si1

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In recent years, flood disasters have occurred frequently, and flood forecasting is an important non-engineering means to effectively prevent and resist mountain torrent disasters, and provide vital decision-making basis for watershed flood warning. Real-time correction method can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. In this paper, three typical small and medium-sized watersheds in Hubei Province (Gaojiayan, Xiheyi, Yuyangguan) are used as research areas. Based on the Time Variant Gain Model, the model prediction results are corrected in real time by recursive least square method with variable forgetting factor. The results show that the average Nash efficiency coefficient of flood forecasting in three watersheds is 0.78 before uncorrected. After real-time correction, the Nash efficiency coefficients of the three basins are all above 0.90, and the peak time forecast qualification rates and the peak flow forecast qualification rates are all up to Grade B or above. The forecast accuracy have been significantly improved.

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Flood forecasting / Time Variant Gain Model / Real-time correction

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LIU Hui-yuan，XIA Jun，ZOU Lei，HONG Si. Ｒeal－time Prediction of Hydrological Model Based on Time－varying Gains. China Rural Water and Hydropower. 2019, 0(6): 16-22

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Received	Revised	Published
2018-10-23	2019-01-18	2019-06-15
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2019-12-12

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