
Research on the Trend of Crop Water Requirement under Different RCP Scenarios in Jiangsu Province
Chuan-meng SHI, Tian-ao WU, Jiang LI, Xi-yun JIAO
Research on the Trend of Crop Water Requirement under Different RCP Scenarios in Jiangsu Province
In order to more accurately evaluate the change trend of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0) and crop water requirement in Jiangsu Province under the background of continuous climate change, the modified Hargreaves-Samani model is employed in this study to predict ET 0 value of the 19 studied stations based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data in CMIP5, and calculated ET 0 value is further combined with the single coefficient method to evaluate the change of the total crop water requirement of rice and wheat. The results show that the annual crop water requirement fluctuating upward trend under the condition of both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The change trend of annual crop water requirement under RCP8.5 lags behind that of RCP 4.5, but the increase range is larger: by 2100, the annual crop water requirement in Jiangsu Province will increase by 74.8%~97.5% and 56.3%~102% under the condition of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. By comparing the changes of precipitation with crop water requirement, the difference value in most areas of Jiangsu Province will be more than 500 mm, which needs a larger amount of surface to supplement irrigation water. In conclusion, although precipitation can not meet the crop water requirements under the future condition of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, this phenomenon can be effectively alleviated through reasonable irrigation methods through a reasonable irrigation method.
CMIP5 / RCP / reference evapotranspiration / crop water requirement / inverse distance weight interpolation {{custom_keyword}} /
1 |
李序春. 气候变化对农业的影响:以大同市为例[J]. 国土与自然资源研究,2017(4): 64-65.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
2 |
陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等. CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
3 |
程雪蓉. 基于CMIP5模式预估长江上游流域气温及降水时空特征[J]. 水电能源科学,2019,37(1):13-16.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
4 |
郭建平. 气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J]. 应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
5 |
张奇谋,陈思,陈松生,等. 不同RCP情景下未来汉江流域气象干旱变化趋势预估研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(6): 1 470-1 480.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
6 |
唐成祥. 降雨天气对农业生产的影响及应对措施[J]. 农业开发与装备,2019(10):68-69.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
7 |
陈书涛,王让会,许遐祯, 等. 气温及降水变化对江苏省典型农业区冬小麦、水稻生育期的影响[J]. 中国农业气象,2011,32(2):235-239.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
8 |
杨雨春. 水稻生育期田间管理措施及气象条件[J]. 农民致富之友, 2014(6): 253-254.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
9 |
刘文茹,陈国庆,曲春红,等. RCP情景下长江中下游麦稻二熟制气候生产潜力变化特征研究 [J]. 生态学报, 2018,38(1): 156-166.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
10 |
庞艳梅,陈超,马振峰. 未来气候变化对四川省水稻生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(1):58-68.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
11 |
李树岩,潘学标,王靖. RCP情景下河南省夏玉米产量的变化及适应措施[J]. 西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2020,48(10):24-37.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
12 |
刘钰,汪林,倪广恒,等. 中国主要作物灌溉需水量空间分布特征[J]. 农业工程学报,2009,25(12):6-12.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
13 |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
14 |
刘有勇. 江苏省农业节水发展战略[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2003(11):5-7.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
15 |
周明耀,朱春龙,刘新仁,等. 节水灌溉与江苏农业可持续发展[J]. 江苏农业研究,2000(2):71-74.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
16 |
金昕. 彭曼公式在作物需水计算中的应用[J]. 江淮水利科技,2018(1):28-30.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
17 |
徐俊增,彭世彰,丁加丽,等. 基于蒸渗仪实测数据的日参考作物蒸发腾发量计算方法评价[J]. 水利学报,2010,41(12):1 497-1 505.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
18 |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
19 |
蔡勇,仇荣,朱振荣. 江苏农村水利现代化探索与思考 [J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2013(4):156-159.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
20 |
顾哲,袁寿其,齐志明,等. 基于ET和水量平衡的日光温室实时精准灌溉决策及控制系统 [J]. 农业工程学报, 2018,34(23): 101-108.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
21 |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
22 |
李郁,陆伟娟,卫琦,等. 不同时间尺度下Hargreaves公式计算ET 0的精度差异[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2015(11):20-23.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
23 |
赵永,蔡焕杰,王健,等. Hargreaves 计算参考作物蒸发蒸腾量公式经验系数的确定[J]. 干旱地区农业研究,2004,22(4):44-47.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
24 |
李志,赵伟,赵明,等. 苏北地区不同水文年冬小麦需水量与灌水量分析[J]. 灌溉排水学报,2020,39():17-20.
增刊1
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
25 |
刘光孟,汪云甲,王允. 反距离权重插值因子对插值误差影响分析[J]. 中国科技论文在线,2010,5(11):879-884.
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
{{custom_ref.label}} |
{{custom_citation.content}}
{{custom_citation.annotation}}
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |