The farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district was an important basic condition of food security. The development trend of farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district from 1978 to 2011 was analyzed in this paper. The GM (1,1) model based on the Markov chain was applied to forecast farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district. The results showed that the farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district would continue to grow in the future, and reached to 18.8×106 ~ 18.9×106 hm2 until 2020. The forecast of model for farmland effective irrigated area of large-sized irrigation district had good precision and applicability.
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