The Ｒesponse of the Upstream Hydrological Cycle Process to
Climate Change in the Upper Hanjiang Ｒiver Basin

China Rural Water and Hydropower ›› 2019 ›› (9) : 1-7.

The Ｒesponse of the Upstream Hydrological Cycle Process to Climate Change in the Upper Hanjiang Ｒiver Basin

CHEN Ting1 ，XIA Jun1，2 ，ZOU Lei 2

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Climate change has different degrees of impact on the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources and the water cycle. Taking the Upper Hanjiang river basin as an example, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of hydrometeorological elements from 1961 to 2013 by linear regression method and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. The Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) was constructed, and the applicability of this model in the basin was verified. According to the results of CMIP5 multi-mode set average, the change of precipitation, temperature and the runoff response process in 2011-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was analyzed. The results show that, from 1961 to 2013, the annual precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River basin gradually decreased with time, the temperature increased significantly with time, and the annual average runoff decreased significantly with time. Under the two climatic scenarios, the precipitation in the Upper Hanjiang River basin will increase in the future compared with the baseline period, the temperature will increase significantly with time, and the runoff will decrease from the baseline period but will increase with time. The results indicate that in the future climate change, the hydrological cycle in the Upper Hanjiang River basin will be greatly affected, and there may be a certain degree of water shortage.

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Upper Hanjiang Ｒiver Basin / climate change / hydrological cycle / DTVGM model

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CHEN Ting, XIA Jun, ZOU Lei. The Ｒesponse of the Upstream Hydrological Cycle Process to Climate Change in the Upper Hanjiang Ｒiver Basin . China Rural Water and Hydropower. 2019, 0(9): 1-7

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Received	Revised	Published
2019-05-23	2019-06-04	2019-09-15
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2020-01-02

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