
基于EA-BiLSTM-SCSO的多步逐小时参考作物蒸腾量预测方法
谢伟明, 张钟莉莉, 陶建平, 曲明山, 魏一博, 张石锐
基于EA-BiLSTM-SCSO的多步逐小时参考作物蒸腾量预测方法
Multi-Step Hourly Reference Crop Transpiration Prediction Method Based on EA-BiLSTM-SCSO
在农业水资源管理领域,参考作物蒸腾量的精确预测对灌溉水高效利用至关重要。当前逐日预测方法未能充分利用日内动态变化信息,限制了预测准确性。为解决该问题,研究提出了一种基于外部注意力机制(EA)的双向长短时记忆网络(BiLSTM)模型,使用沙猫群算法(SCSO)优化模型超参数,实现逐小时参考作物蒸腾量预测。首先利用SCSO方法对EA-BiLSTM模型进行优化,优化后的算法在70个epoch后收敛,平均
In the field of agricultural water resource management, accurate prediction of crop transpiration is crucial for efficient utilization of irrigation water. The current daily prediction method fails to fully utilize the dynamic changes within the day, which limits the accuracy of the prediction. To address the issue, this study proposes a bidirectional long short term memory network (BiLSTM) based on external attention mechanism (EA), which optimizes model hyperparameters using the Sand Cat Swarm Optimization (SCSO) algorithm for hourly reference crop transpiration prediction. Firstly, the SCSO method was used to optimize the EA-BiLSTM model. The optimized algorithm converged after 70 epochs, and the average coefficient of determination increased to 0.750. Furthermore, five characteristic parameters, historical ET 0, solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, and maximum wind speed, were selected from the 10 features. In this paper, the method was verified in the field planting area of the national precision Agriculture research Demonstration base in Changping, Beijing. In the prediction of the next 7 hours, the coefficient of determination was increased from 0.619 to 0.644, achieving better prediction results. Finally, through the interpretability analysis of the model, it was confirmed that historical ET 0 had the highest contribution to the prediction, reaching 0.043, followed by air humidity and total radiation. The comparison results with DT, Lasso, LMP, CNN and other forecasting methods show that the prediction results using EA -BiLSTM-SCSO have achieved the lowest error values in both MAE and MSE indicators. In terms of coefficient of determination, the EA-BiLSTM-SCSO model achieved an average of 0.722, which was 12.6% higher than the CNN model. The study validated the advantages of deep learning and feature engineering in improving the hourly prediction accuracy of reference crop transpiration. The method is used to estimate the water demand of crops in intelligent irrigation, which can realize the accurate prediction of future irrigation, so as to formulate reasonable irrigation plans, improve the efficiency of irrigation water utilization, and carry out effective irrigation water scheduling.
BiLSTM / 外部注意力机制 / 沙猫群优化算法 / 逐小时参考作物蒸腾量预测 / 模型可解释性 {{custom_keyword}} /
BiLSTM / external attention mechanism / sandcat swarm optimization algorithm / hourly reference crop transpiration prediction / model interpretability {{custom_keyword}} /
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