基于Copula函数的区域作物生育阶段干旱频率分析

陈海涛, 邱 林, 李阿龙

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节水灌溉 ›› 2018 ›› (2) : 106-112.
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基于Copula函数的区域作物生育阶段干旱频率分析

  • 陈海涛,邱 林,李阿龙
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Regional Crop Growth Stages Drought Frequency Analysis Based on Copula Function

  • CHEN Hai-tao,QIU Lin,LI A-long
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摘要

作物生育阶段降水的多少及其时空分布是造成农业干旱的主要因素。分析研究区域降水在农作物各生育阶段的概率分布特征,对指导农业防旱抗旱有重要作用。本文以濮阳渠村灌区玉米为例,分析计算了该区域降水在玉米各生育期概率分布特征。首先按玉米生育阶段,拟合各阶段降水量分布函数;然后用Archimedean Copula 函数构造相邻生育阶段降水量的联合分布函数,以此来描述玉米在各生育阶段干旱概率分布特征。由于本方法充分考虑了农作物在各相邻生育阶段降水量统计规律,因此能够提供更全面、准确的防旱抗旱信息。

Abstract

The precipitation at crop growth stage and its space-time distribution are the main factors of agricultural drought. So analysis of precipitation probability distribution characteristics at crop growth stage and study area plays an important role in guiding the agricultural drought control. In this study,taking the corn planting in Puyang Qucun Irrigation Area as an example,the probability distribution characteristics of precipitation at different growth stages of maize were analyzed and calculated. Firstly,according to the maize growth stage, the distribution function of precipitation at each stage was fitted; then the combined distribution function of rainfall in the adjacent growing stages was constructed by using the function Archimedean Copula,which described the characteristics of drought distribution during the growth stages of corn in this area. This paper fully considers the precipitation statistical rule in the adjacent growing stages,so it is possible to provide more comprehensive and accurate drought information.

关键词

作物生育阶段干旱 / Copula 函数 / 频率分析 / 重现期

Key words

crop growth stages drought / Copula function / frequency analysis / return period

基金

河南省高校科技创新团队项目( 18IRTSTHN009) ; 华北水利水电大学博士研究生创新基金项目

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导出引用
陈海涛, 邱 林, 李阿龙. 基于Copula函数的区域作物生育阶段干旱频率分析[J].节水灌溉, 2018(2): 106-112
CHEN Hai-tao, QIU Lin, LI A-long. Regional Crop Growth Stages Drought Frequency Analysis Based on Copula Function[J].Water Saving Irrigation, 2018(2): 106-112

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