为深刻了解玉米浅埋滴灌典型应用区农业气象要素对参考作物腾发量(ET0)的影响,本研究采用拓展傅里叶幅度敏感性检验(EFAST)法对农业气象因子进行全局敏感性分析,明确不同ET0的气象成因,为了解获知农业气象变化对作物蒸散发耗水的影响以及合理设计灌溉制度提供参考。结果表明:通辽市2017年、2018年生长季内的气象因素的变化规律具有西辽河流域的典型特征,即春季冷凉干燥多风、夏季湿热多雨,水文年型分别为丰水年、平水年。ET0与日值最高气温、最低气温、日均风速、日照时数呈正相关,与日均相对湿度呈负相关。该典型区气象因子对ET0的一阶、全局敏感性指数大小排序为:日均风速(0.220/0.324)>最高气温(0.125/0.157)>日均相对湿度(0.100/0.139)>日照时数(0.091/0.116)>最低气温(0.007/0.034),前4个指数为高敏感因子。2017年、2018年生长季ET0的界限分别为1.5~9.3、1.3~9.6 mm/d,采样气象值相应的ET0的界限为0.5~9.2 mm/d,作物生长季内高气温、大风速、低湿度、长日照出现频次越高,潜在蒸散耗水量越大,在农业气象的变化的影响下,使得灌溉制度需做出相应调整。
Abstract
In order to deeply understand the influence of agrometeorological factors on the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) in typical maize planting areas under shallow subsurface drip irrigation, in this study, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST) was used to analyze the global sensitivity of agricultural meteorological factors, to identify the meteorological causes of different ET0, so as to provide reference for understanding the impact of agro-meteorological changes on crop evapotranspiration and water consumption and formulating reasonable irrigation schedule. The results showed that: the variation of meteorological factors of Tongliao in the growth season of 2017and 2018 had the typical meteorological characteristics of Xiliao River Basin, that was, the spring was cold, dry and windy, the summer was humid, hot and rainy; the hydrology year type of the two years was the year of abundant precipitation and the year of normal precipitation respectively. ET0 was positively correlated with daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, daily average wind speed and sunshine hours, and negatively correlated with average daily relative humidity. The first-order and global sensitivity index of meteorological factors to ET0 in this typical area was ranked as follows: daily average wind speed (0.220/0.324) > maximum temperature (0.125/0.157) > daily average relative humidity (0.100/0.139) > sunshine hours (0.091/0.116) ) > minimum temperature (0.007/0.034), and the first four indexes were highly sensitive factors. In the growing seasons of 2017 and 2018, the limits of ET0 were 1.5~9.3, 1.3~9.6 mm/d, respectively, the limits of ET0 for sampling weather value was 0.5~9.2 mm/d. The higher the frequency of high temperature, high wind speed, low humidity and long sunshine in the growing season, the greater the potential evapotranspiration consumption. Under the influence of agrometeorological changes, the irrigation schedule needs to be adjusted accordingly.
关键词
参考作物腾发量 /
敏感性分析 /
Penman-Monteith模型 /
浅埋滴灌 /
农业气象
{{custom_keyword}} /
Key words
reference evapotranspiration;sensibility analysis;Penman-Monteith model;shallow buried drip irrigation /
agrometeorology
{{custom_keyword}} /
基金
内蒙古农牧业创新基金( 2017CXJJN11) ; 国家重点研发计划( 2018YFD0300402、2017YFD0201505) 。
{{custom_fund}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1]李原园, 曹建廷, 黄火键, 等. 国际上水资源综合管理进展[J]. 水科学进展, 2018,29(1):127-137.
[2]IGLESIAS A, QUIROGA S, DIZ A. Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate[J]. Eur Rev Agric Econ, 2011,38(3):427-447.
[3]赵文刚, 马孝义, 刘晓群,等. 基于神经网络算法的广东省典型代表站点ET0简化计算模型研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2019,38(5):93-101.
[4]ALLEN R G, PEREIRA L S, RAES D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements[M]. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1998.
[5]孙云岭, 杨树青, 刘德平. 呼伦贝尔市参考作物蒸散量的时空分布及其气候成因[J]. 节水灌溉, 2018(8):93-98.
[6]ZHAO H,XIONG Y C,LI F M,et al. Plastic film mulch for half growing-season maximized WUE and yield of potato via moisture temperature improvement in a semi-arid agroecosystem[J].Agricultural Water Management,2012,104(2):68-78.
[7]戚迎龙,史海滨,李瑞平,等. 滴灌水肥一体化条件下覆膜对玉米生长及土壤水肥热的影响[J]. 农业工程学报,2019,35(5):99-110.
[8]张丹,刘宏斌,马忠明,等.残膜对农田土壤养分含量及微生物特征的影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 2017(2):310-319.
[9]SALTELLI A, TARANTOLA S, CAMPOLONGO F, et al. Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models[M]. John Wiley and Sons., 2004.
[10]WALLACH D, MAKOWSKI D, JONES J W. Working with Dynamic Crop Models: Evaluation, Analysis, Parameterization, and Applications[M]. Netherlands: Elsevier, 2006:55-100.
[11]何亮,侯英雨,赵刚,等.基于全局敏感性分析和贝叶斯方法的WOFOST作物模型参数优化[J]. 农业工程学报,2016,32(2):169-179.
[12]CONFALONIERI R, BELLOCCHI G, TARANTOLA S, et al. Sensitivity analysis of the rice model WARM in Europe: Exploring the effects of different locations, climates and methods of analysis on model sensitivity to crop parameters[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2010,25(4):479-488.
[13]李迎,吕谋超,张海文,等.参考作物蒸散量对气象要素的敏感性分析[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2017(7):94-99.
[14]侯文菊, 李英年. 黄河源区地表湿润指数及与气象因素的敏感性分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2010,32(6):1 226-1 233.
[15]张调风, 张勃, 梁芸,等. 黄土高原地区生长季参考作物蒸散量对主要气象要素的敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2013,34(2):162-169.
[16]董宇轩, 王会肖, 刘海军, 等. 气候变化背景下关中地区参考作物蒸散量变化趋势及敏感性分析[J]. 节水灌溉, 2019(8):113-119.
[17]刘悦, 崔宁博, 李果, 等. 近56年西南地区四季参考作物蒸散量变化成因分析[J]. 节水灌溉, 2018(12):54-59.
[18]梁霄, 靳晓言, 强皓凡. 若尔盖湿地参考作物蒸散量时空演变特征及成因分析[J]. 节水灌溉, 2018(8):47-53.
[19]邢会敏,相诗尧,徐新刚,等.基于EFAST方法的AquaCrop作物模型参数全局敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业科学, 2017,50(1):64-76.
[20]付利新,陈坤娇,王海玲, 等.2017年内蒙古自治区水资源公报[R].内蒙古自治区水利厅.
[21]SALTELLIA, TARANTOLAS, CAMPOLONGOF. Sensitivity analysis as an ingredient of modeling[J]. Statistical Science, 2000,15(4):377-395.
[22]SALTELLI A. Sensitivity analysis: Could better methods be used?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 1999,104(D3):3 789-3 793.
[23]CUKIER R I, LEVINE H B, SHULER K E. Nonlinear sensitivity analysis of multiparameter model systems[J]. Journal of Computational Physics, 1978,26(1):1-42.
[24]SOBOL’ I M. Sensitivity estimates for nonlinear mathematical models[J]. Mathematical Modelling and Computational Experiments, 1990,2(1):112-118.
[25]王建栋, 郭维栋, 李红祺. 拓展傅里叶幅度敏感性检验(EFAST)在陆面过程模式中参数敏感性分析的应用探索[J]. 物理学报, 2013,62(5):50202(1-7).
[26]DEJONGE K C, ASCOUGHⅡ J C, AHMADI M, et al. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a dynamic agroecosystem model under different irrigation treatments[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012,231(4):113-125.