近50年来淮河蚌埠以上流域降水时空变化特征分析

张平 夏军 邹磊 马协一

PDF(2803 KB)
中国农村水利水电 ›› 2017 ›› (3) : 1-8.
水文水资源

近50年来淮河蚌埠以上流域降水时空变化特征分析

  • 张平1,夏军2,邹磊3,马协一2
作者信息 +

An Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall in Huaihe Watershed above Bengbu in Recent 50 Years

  • ZHANG Ping1,XIA Jun2,ZOU Lei3,MA xie-yi2
Author information +
稿件信息 +

摘要

利用1956-2010年淮河蚌埠以上流域内112个雨量站的逐日降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和小波分析方法分析了蚌埠以上流域三级水资源分区近50a降水的时空分布特征。结果表明:1、蚌埠以上多年平均降雨存在北部低,南部高的空间分布不均匀性,四个分区中除王蚌区间南岸降雨有递增趋势外其他均为递减趋势,整个蚌埠以上降雨有递增趋势。2、从时间上看,MK检验显示王家坝以上北岸降雨有显著递减趋势,王蚌区间南岸降雨有较显著递增趋势,Mann-Kendall趋势检验UF曲线显示王蚌区间南岸变化趋势在整个研究时间段不显著,2003年突变降雨对统计结果影响较大。3、蚌埠以上研究区域及分区降雨有不同的周期,但有共同的6a左右的振荡周期。整个研究区域降雨变化特征受分区影响。

Abstract

Based on the daily rainfall data of 55 years from 1956 to 2010 collected by 112 precipitation stations above Bengbu lock,the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis are used to analyze the spatial-temporal variation in four water resource divisions. The results indicate thataverage annual rainfall in the northern part of the study area is higher than that in the southern part. The rainfall of the divisions is decreasingin addition to the part of the south of Wangbang Region and there is a trend of increase in the rainfall in the whole study area. The rainfall decrease in the north of the area above Wangjiaba has gone through the Mann-Kendall test,while the rainfall in the south of the area aboveWangjiaba is inclined to increase. As a result of the extreme precipitation in 2003,the UF curve shows that the trend of the rainfall in thesouth of the area above Wangjiaba is not significant in the whole study period. Although the cycle of the rainfall of the whole study area andthe four water resource divisions was different,there was a common oscillation cycle of about 6 year. The spatial scale had effect on the research results.

关键词

淮河流域 / 水资源分区 / Mann-Kendall 统计检验 / 小波分析

Key words

Huaihe watershed / water resource divisions / Mann-Kendall test / wavelet test

基金

国家"十二五"水专项淮河课题(2014ZX07204-006); 
中小河流及无测站流域径流形成非线性机理及其模型的应用基础研究(41571028)。

引用本文

导出引用
张平 夏军 邹磊 马协一. 近50年来淮河蚌埠以上流域降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电, 2017(3): 1-8
ZHANG Ping, XIA Jun, ZOU Lei, MA xie-yi. An Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation of Rainfall in Huaihe Watershed above Bengbu in Recent 50 Years[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2017(3): 1-8

参考文献

[1] IPCC.Summary for policymakers of the synthesis report of the IPCC fourth assessment report [M] .Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,2007:2-22.
[2] 张正涛, 高超, 刘青,等. 不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(7):1361-1372.[Zhang Z T, Gao C, Liu Q, et al. Risk assessment on storm flood disasters of different return periods in Huaihe River basin [J]. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(7):1361-1372.]
[3] 高超, 姜彤, 翟建青. 过去(1958-2007)和未来(2011-2060)50年淮河流域气候变化趋势分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2012, 33(1):8-17. [Gao C, Jiang T, Zhai J Q. Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change in the Huaihe River Basin [J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2012, 33(1):8-17.]
[4] 顾万龙, 王纪军, 朱业玉,等. 淮河流域降水量年内分配变化规律分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(4):426. [Gu W L, Wang J J, Zhu Y Y, et al. Annual Distribution of Precipitation Over the Huaihe River Basin[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2010, 19(4):426.]
[5] 郑泳杰, 张强, 张生,等. 基于信息熵的淮河流域降水时空变异特征研究[J]. 水电能源科学, 2016(1):1-5.[Zheng Y J, Zhang Q, Zhang S, et al. Entropy-based Investigation on Variability of Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin[J].Water Resources and Power, 2016(1):1-5.]
[6] 卢燕宇, 吴必文, 田红,等. 基于Kriging插值的1961~2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(5):567-573.[Lu Y Y, Wu B W, Tian H, et al. Spatial And Temporal Variability Characteristics Of Precipitation In Huai River Basin During 1961~2005[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2011, 20(5):567-573.]
[7] 梁树献, 杨亚群, 徐珉. 淮河流域6-8月旱涝分布特征[J]. 水文, 2001, 21(2):54-56.[Liang S X, Yang Y Q, X M. The distribution characteristics of 6-8 months of drought and flood in Huaihe River Basin [J]. Hydrology, 2001, 21(2):54-56.]
[8] 王新龙, 钟平安, 万新宇,等. 淮河流域洪涝时空分布规律[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013(3):45-49.[Wu X Y, Xie X M, Zhang H T, et al. Statue and Development Countermeasure of Chinese Water Resources Justification for Planning[J].Water Resources and Power, 2013(3):45-49.]
[9] 张翔, 宋晨, 吴绍飞. 淮河流域降雨时空变异与信息熵分析[J]. 中国科技论文, 2014(5):551-554. [Zhang X, Song C, Wu S F. Rainfall spatial variation and its information entropy analysis in Huaihe watershed[J]. China Sciencepaper , 2014(5):551-554.]
[10] 周文艳, Guo Pinwen, 罗勇,等. 淮河流域夏季降水空间变率研究[J]. 气象, 2008, 34(8):51-57. [Zhou W Y, Guo P W, Luo Y, et al. Spatial Variation of Summer Precipitation over Huaihe River Basin[J]. Meteorological Monyhly , 2008, 34(8):51-57.]
[11] 佘敦先, 夏军, 张永勇,等. 近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9):1200-121. [She D X, Xia J, Zhang Y Y, et al. The Trend Analysis and Statistical Distribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Huaihe River Basin in the Past 50 Years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica , 2011, 66(9):1200-121.]
[12] Wei F Y, Zhang T. Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 2009, doi: 10.1007/s11430-009-0151-7.
[13] 王胜, 田红, 徐敏,等. 1961—2008年淮河流域主汛期极端降水事件分析[J]. 气象科技, 2012, 40(1):87-91.[Wang S, Tian H, Xu M, et al. Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in Rainy Season over Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2008[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2012, 40(1):87-91.]
[14] 苏坤慧, 延军平, 李建山. 河南省境内以淮河为界的南北气候变化差异分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2010, 31(3):333-337.[Su K H, Yan J P, Li J S. Different Analysis on Climate Change in Huaihe Valley in Henan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2010, 31(3):333-337.]
[15] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 气象出版社, 1999.[Wei F Y, Modern Technology of Statistics, Diagnosis and Forecast for Climate[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999.]
[16] 徐宗学, 张楠. 黄河流域近50年降水变化趋势分析[J]. 地理研究, 2006, 25(1):27-34.[Xu Z X, Zhang N. Long-term trend of precipitation in the Yellow River basin during the past 50 years[J]. Geographical Research , 2006, 25(1):27-34.]
[17] 于延胜, 陈兴伟. R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2008, 19(3):41-44.[Yu Y S, Chen X W. Analysis of future trend characteristics of hydrological time series based on R /S and Mann-Kendall methods[J], Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering, 2008, 19(3):41-44.]
[18] 常雪峰. 气候变化对水文水资源影响研究[J]. 内蒙古水利, 2014(4):25-26.[Chang J F. Study on the impact of climate change on hydrological and water resources[J]. Inner Mongolia Water Resources, 2014(4):25-26.]
[19] Yue S, Wang C Y. Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test[J]. Water Resources Research, 2002, 38(6):4-1–4-7.
[20] Nener B D, Ridsdill-Smith T A, Zeisse C. Wavelet analysis of low altitude infrared transmission in the coastal environment[J]. Infrared Physics & Technology, 1999, 40(5):399-409.
[21] [21] Clemen T. The use of scale information for integrating simulation models into environmental information systems[J]. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 108(1–3):107-113.
[22] 王文圣, 丁晶, 衡彤,等. 水文序列周期成分和突变特征识别的小波分析法[J]. 工程勘察, 2003(1):32-35.[Wang W S, Ding J, Heng T, et al. Wavelet analysis method for the identification of periodic components and abrupt change characteristics of hydrological series[J]. Geptechnical Investigation & Surveying , 2003(1):32-35.]
[23] 谢庄, 曹鸿兴, 李慧,等. 近百余年北京气候变化的小波特征[J]. 气象学报, 2000, 58(3):362-369.[Xie Z, Cao H X, Li H, et al. Wavelet Characteristics of Climate Change in Beijing Since the 19th Century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2000, 58(3):362-369.]
[24] Praveen K, Efi F. A Multicomponent Decomposition of Spatial Rainfall Fields. 1. Segregation of Large- and Small-Scale Features Using Wavelet Transforms[J]. Water Resources Research, 1993, 29(8):2515-2532.
[25] 刘洋, 王典, 刘财. 数学变换方法在地震勘探中的应用[J]. 吉林大学学报:地球科学版, 2005(S1).[Liu Y, Wang D, Liu C. The Application of Mathematical Transform in Seismic Exploration[J]. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 2005(S1).]
[26] 王文圣. 水文小波分析[M]. 化学工业出版社, 2005.[Wang W S. Wavelet analysis of hydrology[M]. China:Chemical Industry Press,2005]
[27] 邓自旺, 林振山, 周哓兰. 西安市近50年来气候变化多时间尺度分析[J]. 高原气象, 1997, 16(1):81-93.[Deng Z W, Lin Z S, Zhou X L. Multiple Time Scales Analysis Of Xi An Climate Change For Last 50 Years[J].Plateau Meteorology, 1997, 16(1):81-93.]
[28] 毕宝贵, 矫梅燕, 廖要明,等. 2003年淮河流域大洪水的雨情、水情特征分析[J]. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(6):681-687.[Bi B G, Jiao M Y, Liao Y M, et al. Analysis Of Precipitation And River Flow In The Huaihe River Basins During The Summer Of 2003[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2004, 15(6):681-687.]
[29] 毕宝贵, 矫梅燕, 李泽椿. 2003年淮河流域洪涝暴雨的气象水文特征分析[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 2004, 27(5):577-586.[Bi B G, Jiao M Y, Li Z C. Contrast Analysis of Meteorological and
Hydrological Features of Extremely Heavy Rainfall Causing Severe Floods in Huaihe River Valley[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of meteorology, 2004, 27(5):577-586.]
PDF(2803 KB)

350

访问

0

引用

详细情况

段落导航
相关文章

/