在分析研究区水文地质条件的基础上，基于水量平衡原理，本文应用Visual MODFLOW建立了研究区地下水系统水流模型。利用观测井观测资料及南水北调输水实测资料，对模型进行了识别和验证，证明所建模型有效合理。并预报了未来五年地下水位的变化情况，结果表明：①2020年地下水流场未发生明显变化；②2020年地下水位得到整体抬升，最大抬升高度达6.0 m；③2020年地下水年内波动状态与2015年相比变化不大；④ 2020年地下水年变幅在0.5～1.0 m之间。
Abstract
Based on the analysis of hydrogeological conditions and the balance of water quantity in the study area,the flow model of the Liang-Ji basin is built by using Visual MODFLOW software. The model is identified and verified by the observation data and the measured data of the South-to-North water transfer,which proves the model＇s rationality and effectiveness. Moreover,the model forecasts the changes of groundwater level in the next five years. The results show that: ①The groundwater flow field will not change significantly in 2020. ②The groundwater table will overall uplift in 2020,and the maximum lifting height can reach 6.0 m. ③Compared with 2015,the groundwater fluctuation will change little within the year in 2020. ④The annual variation of groundwater will range from 0. 5 to 1. 0 m in 2020. ⑤The groundwater can be recharged by 9.8×104 m3 /d.
关键词
南水北调 /
梁济运河 /
MODFLOW /
地下水位 /
预测
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Key words
South-to-North Water Transfer Project /
Liang-Ji Canal Zone /
MODFLOW /
groundwater table /
prediction
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基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41202174);
科技部国际科技合作与交流计划项目(2007DFB70200);
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20123702120020)。
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