承载力是描述环境资源与社会经济发展之间关系的重要指标，成为在承载力限制下，协调社会经济发展与资源环境保护的有效手段。基于此，本文采用系统动力学方法，构建地表水环境承载力模型，以四平市地表水环境承载力为例分析水环境承载力的影响因素构成，及其影响的显著性大小。结果显示，人口数量的变化是地表水环境承载力的主要影响因素；农业生产是影响地表水资源消耗量的主要因素；第二产业总产值是影响地表水环境中COD含量的重要因素。因此，可通过调整人口数量、农业生产投入与第二产业投入与结构实现地表水环境与社会经济发展的平衡，使其在地表水环境承载的范围内，协调发展。
Abstract
Carrying capacity is one of the important index which can describe the relationship among environmental resources and socioeconomic development, it is the important index that can describe the relationship between water environment and human economic and social activities. In consequence, clarity which socio-economic factors will have an important effect for Carrying capacity, and then regulation of socio-economic factors, according to the natural resources environment, it has become the effective means for the coordination of social economic development and resource environment protection, in the limit of Carrying capacity. Based on this, through method comparison, use SD method, construction model of WECC tally with the actual situation in this paper, taking Siping as example. It can be analyzed the significant of influencing factors of water environmental carrying capacity. To determine the influence factors of water environmental carrying capacity. The analysis results show that in the elements of social economy, the change of population is the major contributors of the ammonia nitrogen content in the water environment; The main factors to influenced the water consumption is agricultural production; The second industry output value is the important factors influencing the COD content in water environment. The conclusion is as follows: the main factors influencing the Water Environment Carrying Capacity (WECC) is included population, agricultural output, the second industry output value and its related factors. Therefore, the balance of water environment and social and economic development can be through the population, and the second industry in agricultural production inputs and structure to adjust. To coordinate development in WECC.
关键词
系统动力学 /
水环境承载力 /
影响因素分析 /
四平
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Key words
system dynamics /
water environmental carrying capacity /
analysis of influencing factors /
Siping
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基金
国家科技重大专项: 辽河源头区水污染综合治理技术及示范研究(2012ZX07202-009);
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项"十 二 · 五"子 课 题 (2012ZX07208 -011)
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