用改进的基于标准差的模糊层次分析法确定河湖水系连通评价体系中指标和子系统的权重，用集对分析法构造评价样本与评价标准等级之间联系数分量，建立基于联系数的河湖水系连通评价模型(CN -AM)。CN-AM模型既可测度整体状态的高低程度，又可识别影响系统的重要指标和子系统。CN-AM在南渡江应用结果表明：①利用属性数学的置信度准则评判方法与联系数的均分原则评判方法进行互补，保障评价结果的可靠性。②未来5年南渡江水系连通性子系统等级为2.6976-2.6978，自然功能和社会功能子系统的等级为3.5978-3.7403和3.6158-3.6920，南渡江河湖水系连通系统的总体状况为3.4625-3.5687级，处于中和良之间；主要限制指标为河频率、水系连通度、年平均径流保证率、水体纳污能力、河流水质达标率、地表水农业供水百分比、水库调节能力指数和地表水城镇供水百分比。
Abstract
By the improving analytic hierarch process method to determine the weights of indicators and subsystems in interconnected river system network (IRSN), construct the connection number of components between the evaluation samples and the evaluation criteria, the evaluation model (CN-AM) of IRSN is constructed. CN-AM model not only can measure the overall state of the level, but also can identify the important indicators of the system and subsystems.Application of CN-AM in Nandu River: ①The reliability of the evaluation results is ensured by using the method of evaluation of the confidence criterion of attribute mathematics and the principle of equalization of the number of connections.②In the next 5 years, the connectivity subsystems of the Nandu river system are 2.6976-2.6978, the natural function and social function subsystems are 3.5978-3.7403 and 3.6158-3.6920. The overall condition of the Nandu river system is 3.4625-3.5687,between the middle and the good.The main limiting indicators are river frequency, water connectivity, annual average runoff guarantee rate, water body pollutant capacity, river water quality compliance rate, surface water agricultural water supply percentage, reservoir regulation ability index and surface water urban water supply percentage.
基金
国家自然科学基金( 51569009，51509127) ; 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目( 201401048) ; 海南省自然科学基金( 414192，20164157) ; 海南省科协青年科技英才
学术创新计划项目( HAST201629) ; 海南大学科研启动基金项目( kyqd1417) ; 海南省哲学社会科学规划课题
［HNSK( QN) 13-04］
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