山洪灾害防治工作已成为我国水利防灾减灾的重要基础工作，考虑到山洪灾害的突发性强、破坏性大等特点，对GIS数据的空间分析、建模与优化也提出了新的要求。本研究以江西省婺源县乐安河上游流域为研究区，采用GIS中定量的空间分析、建模与优化方法研究山洪灾害空间分布。根据联合国人道主义事务部提出的灾害风险的定义，本研究将山洪灾害风险定义为危险性和易损性的乘积。对乐安河上游流域分别进行危险性划分和易损性划分模型构建，其中危险性模型采用逻辑回归模型；易损性模型采用转换赋值函数；最终获得乐安河上游山洪风险评价的结果，并通过山洪灾害调查评价项目中划定的重点防治区进行结果验证。研究表明山洪灾害风险评价的模型能较好应用于较小尺度的流域山洪灾害风险划分。
Abstract
The flash flood prevention work has become an important fundamention work of water conservancy disaster prevention and reduction in China. Considering the sudden, strong and destructive characteristics of flash flood disaster, new requirements are put forward for the spatial analysis, modeling and optimization of GIS data. This paper takes the upper of Le'an River in Wuyuan County, Jiangxi Province as the study area, using GIS spatial analysis, modeling and optimization method to study the distribution of flash flood disaster, optimization the flash flood station network。According to the definition of disaster risk posed by the United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs, this study defines the risk of flash flood disaster as a product of hazard and vulnerability. The hazard model is based on the logistic regression model, and the vulnerability model adopts the transformation assignment function. Finally, the results of the risk assessment in upper Le'an River are obtained, and the flash flood disaster investigation and evaluation project identified in the key areas to verify the results. The study shows that the model of risk assessment of flash flood disaster can be applied to the classification of flash flood disaster risk in small scale.
关键词
山洪灾害 /
风险划分 /
逻辑回归模型 /
转换赋值模型 /
GIS
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Key words
flash flood disaster /
risk division /
logistic regression model /
transformation assignment funtion /
GIS
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