合理确定汛限水位动态控制回蓄时机可以减轻水库在回蓄过程中的开闸频率。本文提出了动态剩余水量的概念，构建了综合考虑当前流量、峰后延迟时间、洪峰流量及峰型指数等表征洪水退水规律的指标体系，建立了动态剩余水量多元线性回归模型，提出了基于动态剩余水量确定水库汛限水位动态控制回蓄时机的方法。以河口村水库为背景进行实例研究，结果表明：采用动态剩余水量多元线性回归模型的计算结果，可以较好的实现水库汛限水位动态控制的回蓄目标。

It can reduce the open frequency of reservoir in the water storage process that reasonably determining the timing of water storage during dynamic control of flood limited water level. In this paper, the concept of dynamic remaining water was proposed. An index system included the current flow, post-peak delay time, peak flow and peak-type index was constructed to characterize the raw of recession flow. And a multivariate linear regression model for predicting remaining water was established. With the dynamic remaining water, a method for determining the timing of water storage was put forward. Taking the Hekou village reservoir as an example, the results show that it can achieve the goal of dynamic control of flood limited water level by using the calculation results of multiple linear regression model.