利用永定河上游流域的气象站及典型水文站点的降水、气温及径流资料，分析了1960-2012年流域气温、降水的空间分布，揭示了永定河上游及主要支流的气温、降水、径流的演变特征。结果表明：流域的气温和降水在空间上差异显著；气温有显著的升高趋势，径流呈显著减少的趋势，而降水变化趋势不明显；流域的气温及径流均有显著的突变点，而降水无明显的突变点且年际波动幅度较大；流域内的年内降水分配不均衡，气温四季变化分明，20世纪80年代以前，流域的径流年内和年代变化与气温、降水的变化关联性较高，而80年代以后，其关联性较小；水利工程拦蓄及社会取用水等人类活动是径流变化的主要影响因素。因此，未来流域水资源不合理的开发利用应引起高度的重视。
Abstract
Based on the precipitation, temperature and runoff data of the meteorological station and hydrological station in the upstream of the Yongding River Basin, the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in the basin from 1960 to 2012 is analyzed, and the evolution characteristics of runoff, temperature, and precipitation in the upstream and main tributaries of the Yongding River Basin are revealed. The results show that the temperature and precipitation in the basin are significantly different in space; the temperature has a significant increasing trend, the runoff shows a significant decreasing trend, and the precipitation change trend is not obvious; the temperature and runoff in the basin have significant mutation points, and precipitation. There is no obvious mutation point and the annual fluctuation is large; the temperature in the basin is changed in four seasons, and the distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven during the year. Before the 1980s, the changes in the annual and chronological changes of the basin runoff are related to the changes of temperature and precipitation. After the 1980s, its relevance is small; human activities such as water conservancy projects and social water use are the main influencing factors of runoff changes. Therefore, the unreasonable development and utilization of water resources in the basin should be highly valued.
关键词
永定河上游流域 /
降水 /
气温 /
径流 /
演变特征
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Key words
upstream of the Yongding River /
precipitation /
temperature /
runoff /
evolution characteristics
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基金
水 体 污 染 与 治 理 科 技 重 大 专 项 ( 2017ZX07101004 －
001) ; 国家重点研发计划重点专项( 2018YFC0407702) ;
国家自然科学基金( 51809288) ; 北京市自然科学基金
重点研究专题项目( Z160001) 。
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