水资源是一个国家可持续发展的核心要素。在目前中美经济深度交融的背景下，研究两国间的虚拟水贸易有助于认识我国的水资源与经济的可持续发展状况，能为制定经济贸易政策和水资源管理政策提供依据。为了反映某国某行业对于另一国各行业用水的间接带动程度，基于水资源投入产出模型，改进了行业间虚拟水转移量的计算方法，提出了利用世界投入产出表计算国家间拉动系数的方法，并分析了2005-2014年中美两国的行业用水特性指标、行业间虚拟水转移量和两国间虚拟水贸易情况，主要结论有：①中国的科技行业、信息与通信业对美国各行业用水的间接拉动作用较大，美国的建筑业对中国各行业用水的间接拉动作用较大。此外，两国的农业、电力与燃气供应业用水效率都较低，而金融与保险业、信息与通信业用水效率都较高；②产业间虚拟水的流动方向为第一产业流向第二产业，第二产业流向第三产业，用水效率也是由第一、二、三产业依次递增的；③在两国贸易中，中国净出口到美国的虚拟水量先减小后增加，美国净出口到中国的虚拟水量一直增加，但中国始终为虚拟水净出口状态。中国主要通过制造业商品向美国出口虚拟水，美国则主要通过农产品向中国出口虚拟水。
Abstract
Water resources is the core element of a country's sustainable development. In the context of the Sino-US Trade War, the study of virtual water trade among countries is helpful to understand the sustainable development of China's water resources and economy, and also can provide a basis for formulating economic and trade policies and water resources management. To describe the indirect pulling effect of industry production in one country to the other country on water, based on the input-output model of water resources, this paper improves the calculation method of virtual water transfer among industries, and puts forward a new method to calculate the pulling coefficient of industries between this two countries by using world input-output tables. And this paper also analyzes the industrial water characteristic indexes, virtual water transfer among industries and virtual water trade between China and the United States during 2005-2014. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The scientific and technological industry, information and communication industry have strong pulling effect on water use of various industries in the United States, and the construction industry in the United States has strong pulling effect on water of various industries in China. In addition, the agriculture, electricity and gas supply industries in both countries are less efficient, while the finance and insurance, information and communications industries are more efficient. (2) The flow direction of virtual water between industries is the primary industry flowing to the secondary industry, then to the tertiary industry, and the water consumption efficiency is also increasing successively by the primary, secondary and tertiary industries. (3) In the trade between these two countries, China's net export of virtual water to the United States decreased at first and then increased, the United States' net export of virtual water to China has been increasing. However, China has always export virtual water to the United States. China exports virtual water to the U.S. mainly through manufactured goods, while the U.S. exports virtual water to China mainly through agricultural products.
关键词
虚拟水 /
虚拟水贸易 /
拉动效应 /
中美贸易
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Key words
virtual water /
virtual water trade /
pulling effect /
Sino-US Trade
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