针对最严格水资源管理考核指标的多属性、多层次且无法全部量化的特点，从用水总量控制、用水效率控制、水功能区限制纳污和基础能力建设4个方面来构建最严格水资源管理考核指标体系，依据黄金分割理论建立水资源管理制度与措施落实的评语集；采用云模型描述定性指标的模糊不确定性以直观体现定性概念与定量数值间的转换，组合运用模糊区间AHP和熵权法计算各级指标的综合权重以减少主观因素对评价结果的影响；而后运用逆向云发生器绘制总体评价结果云图而直观判定评价等级。案例分析运用所提评价模型对江苏省2016-2018年水资源管理制度及措施落实完成情况进行评估，评价结果表明江苏省水资源管理制度和措施落实情况处于非常好等级，与该省近年实际考核情况基本相符，验证了所建评价模型计算结果可以为区域水资源管理考核评估提供一定的决策参考。
Abstract
In view of the characteristics of multi-attribute, multi-level and unable to quantify all the systems and measures in the assessment of the most stringent water management system, the assessment index system of water resources management is constructed from four aspects including total water use control, water efficiency control, water function zone pollution limitation and foundation abilities building. According to the golden section theory, the evaluation collection is established for the assessment of water resources management system and measures implementation. The cloud model is used to describe the fuzzy uncertainty of qualitative indicators for reflecting the conversion between qualitative concepts and quantitative values. The proposed model employs the combination of the fuzzy interval analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and entropy weight method（EWM） to compute the synthetic weights of indicators at all levels to reduce the impact of subjective factors on the evaluation results. Then by using the reverse cloud generator further, the overall evaluation result cloud map is drawn to intuitively determine the evaluation level. In case study, the evaluation procedure is demonstrated for the assessment of the implementation of water resources management system and measures from 2016 to 2018 in Jiangsu Province. The evaluation results show that the implementation of water resources management system and measures in Jiangsu Province is in a very good level, basically consistent with the actual assessment of the province in recent years, which verifies the calculation results of the evaluation model can provide certain decision-making reference for the assessment of regional water resources management.
关键词
模糊区间AHP /
熵权法 /
云模型 /
水资源管理
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Key words
fuzzy interval AHP /
entropy weight method /
cloud model /
water resource management
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