WANG Bin, WU Xue-ming, DAI Sheng, LIN Kai-rong, LAN Tian, JIA Wen-hao, LIU Yan-ran, CHEN Yong-qing
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The accuracy of runoff forecasting is of great significance for basin flood warning, water resource management, and ecological conservation. However, due to factors such as climate change and human activities, as well as the notable nonlinearity and temporal dependencies among different hydrological processes, traditional hydrological models often lack sufficient accuracy in handling complex time-series data and non-stationary characteristics. To enhance model applicability in humid regions, this study developed a Long Short-Term Memory Sequence-to-Sequence model integrated with an attention mechanism (LSTM-Seq2Seq-Attention), using the Gaotianshui Basin in the Pearl River system as a case study. The research systematically optimized the model from three aspects: model structure, input variables, and time step configuration. In terms of model structure, by comparing the performance of LSTM, Seq2Seq, and the attention-enhanced LSTM-Seq2Seq models during the validation period, it was found that the attention mechanism effectively improves the model’s ability to capture key hydrological events. For input variable selection, seven categories of variable combinations were designed based on hydrological process mechanisms to assess the influence of different variables on runoff simulation. Regarding time step optimization, ten input sequence lengths ranging from 3 to 180 days were tested to evaluate the impact of different time windows on model predictive capability and to analyze the memory characteristics of the basin′s hydrological processes. The results demonstrate that the attention mechanism enables the model to more effectively focus on critical periods such as heavy precipitation and sharp runoff increases when processing long sequence information, thereby significantly improving prediction performance. Compared to models without the attention mechanism, the LSTM-Seq2Seq-Attention model achieved a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.982 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.039 mm during the validation period, indicating its superior ability to capture nonlinear hydrological responses. Input variable comparisons revealed that using only the core variables—precipitation, air temperature, and potential evapotranspiration—yielded the highest accuracy (NSE=0.986), outperforming the full-variable combination that included 18 variables. This suggests that in meteorologically dominated humid basins, excessive variables may introduce noise and impair model performance. Furthermore, the study on time steps revealed a "memory window effect" in the basin. The model achieved optimal overall performance with an input sequence length of 90 days, simultaneously capturing rapid runoff responses and slow groundwater recharge processes, with an NSE of 0.998 and an RMSE of 0.165 mm. In summary, the LSTM-Seq2Seq-Attention model proposed in this study provides a high-accuracy solution for runoff forecasting in humid regions through systematic optimization of model structure, input variables, and time steps. The findings not only validate the effectiveness of the attention mechanism in hydrological modeling but also offer theoretical support and practical references for the application of deep learning in hydrology.