MENG Han, YAO Cheng, ZHENG Ai-min, YANG Feng-yuan, LI Jing-bing, SHI Zhuo, ZHANG Jin-tang
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Long short-term memory network (LSTM) model can effectively simulate the nonlinear response between rainfall and runoff, and has been widely used in flood simulation and forecast. In order to improve the applicability and simulation accuracy of the model in different application scenarios, this paper, based on the LSTM model and its five variants, carried out a case study on the rainfall and runoff time series of 30 floods from 1986 to 2000 in the Shujia watershed in the southern mountainous area of Anhui Province. The flood simulation effects of LSTM and its variant models under different loss functions, different forecast periods and different training scales are discussed. The ensemble simulation of LSTM model, its variant model and extreme Gradient Rise (XGBoost) model is also studied. The results show that: ① The four loss functions can well simulate the flood process of the outlet section of Shujia Basin, and the simulation accuracy is as follows: relative root mean square error (RSR)> Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE)> mean square error (MSE)> Klin-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) of each RSR test set under LSTM and its variant model can reach more than 0.7. ② With the extension of the prediction period, the model faces problems such as information forgetting or error accumulation when dealing with long time series, and the accuracy of flood simulation using LSTM and its variant models generally shows a downward trend; Under the same forecast scenario, with the increase of training scale, the simulation accuracy of the model first increases to the best and then tends to be stable. ③LSTM model and its variant model are combined with XGBoost model, which reduces the simulation deviation of a single model and makes the overall prediction more accurate and reliable; Moreover, the residual simulation is introduced to make up for the characteristics of compound flood which can not be captured by the single model, and the simulation accuracy of compound flood is further improved.