GU Jia-shuai, LI Qiong-fang, NIU Ming-yuan, CHEN Qi-hui, HE Peng-fei, ZHOU Zheng-mo , ZENG Tian-shan, DU Yao, SONG Yun, HAN Xing-ye
China Rural Water and Hydropower. 2019, (8):
83-87.
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Considering the limitation that univariate drought characteristics analysis cannot fully describe the nature of drought events,this
paper takes Xixian watershed in the upper reaches of Huaihe River as the study area. The meteorological drought index SPI is calculated by
using the daily precipitation data of 42 rainfall stations from 1976 to 2016. The three drought characteristic variables of drought duration,
drought intensity and drought intensity peak are extracted by run theory,and their two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distributions
are constructed based on four types of symmetric Archimedean Copula functions to deduce the combined return period. The results show that
three-parameter gamma distribution fit the marginal distribution of drought duration best,while on the marginal distribution of drought
intensity and drought peak intensity,three-parameter weibull distribution fit best. The Frank Copula function is best fitting for the joint
distributions of two-dimensional and three-dimensional drought characteristic variables. It is estimated that in the combined return period,
the joint return period can be the lower limit of the univariate return period under the same frequency and the co-occurrence return period can
be the upper limit. The results can provide a reference for the drought prevention and disaster reduction in Huaihe River Basin and for the
analysis of drought characteristics in other basins.