DONG Li-jun ,DONG Xiao-hua ,WEI Chong ,YU Dan ,BO Hui-juan ,GUO Jing
China Rural Water and Hydropower. 2020, (4):
13-21.
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Climate change and human activities are the two main driving factors affecting hydrological cycle and water resources allocation. Yalong River Basin is an important hydropower base in China. Its planned total installed capacity is up to 30 million kilowatts. A quantitative analysis of the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological extremes is necessary and valuable for flood control dispatching of cascade reservoirs in Yalong River Basin and ensuring flood control safety. Firstly, the daily scale SWAT model of Yalong River Basin is established. Then, the CLUE-S model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use under the urbanization development scenario. Based on the current land use situation, the spatial distribution of land use under the situation of GGP (grain for green program) is obtained. Daily runoff series under the three land use scenarios (base period, urbanization scenario and GGP scenario) are simulated and analyzed. The main results are as follows: First, the SWAT model can simulate and reproduce the hydrological extremes of Yalong River Basin in the base period of Yajiang, Wali and Xiaodeshi stations well. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and deterministic coefficient of the calibration and validation period are all above 0.70, and the absolute value of PBIAS is less than 10% except for validation period of Wali Station, so the simulation accuracy is acceptable. Second, under the urbanization land use scenario, the proportion of urban area increases from 0.12% to 0.37%, and the proportion of cultivated land and unused land decreases slightly. The daily maximum flow of Yajiang, Maidilong and Wali stations increases as a whole, and the average increment is 4.6%, 3.4% and 2.3%, respectively, gradually decreasing from upstream to downstream. Third, under the GGP land use scenario, the proportion of cultivated land decreases from 5.43% to 2.85%, and the proportion of woodland and grassland increases accordingly. The daily maximum flow of Yajiang, Maidilong and Wali stations decreases slightly, but the reduction is very limited, and the decrease of Wali Station is the largest, only -1.2%.